Is This The May To Go Away?

"Sell in May and go away".  This old adage is based on the theory that markets generally perform better from November 1 to April 30 than in the May 1 to October 31 period.  I've written about this before.  Last June to be precise, after taking a licking in May.

I've given up on trying to predict market trends.  Just too many variables which have little or nothing to do with corporate performance.  To name a few, earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, riots, civil unrest and civil war dramatically affect world markets and with electronic access to worldwide news, the effect can be instantaneous.  How many times have you turned on the TV first thing in the morning or checked overnight news on the Internet to discover that Asia, Europe and US futures are up along with the price of oil and gold?  Looking like a great day for the TSX....and then, one of these natural or man made events happens in mid-morning and by noon you've lost any gains that may have been accrued in the past few weeks.

2011 started out slowly.  January saw the TSX rise from 13,443 to 13,551 for a gain of less than 1%.  Things got going in February.  The TSX gained 4% for the month and closed at 14,136.  That, unfortunately is about as good as it gets.  Since the end of February the TSX dipped to 13,524 on March 16 and peaked at 14,270 on April 5.  The close Friday?  13,799.

So, what's causing this lack of direction?  On the plus side, earnings season was mostly positive.  Lead by the banks and energy companies, Canadian corporations reported some excellent numbers.  On the down side, civil unrest in the mid east contributes to holding the price of oil well above $100.00.  Good for energy companies, not so good for the struggling US economy.  If the world's largest economy doesn't gain some traction it's going to be a long time before we see markets back to normal...whatever the heck normal is?  If that wasn't enough, Japan's March earthquake threw the world's third largest economy into turmoil.  Not good!

As of Friday, my stuff is up 5% for the year, well ahead of the TSX which is up only 2%.  I'm interested by the fact that my Canadian Endeavour Fund units are at an all time high.  As I've mentioned many times, this is my largest single holding.  I'll be watching with interest today. If the TSX and the major holdings of the Endeavour Fund hold their own, this may be the day I take that money off the table. 

Hand Held Bloggin'

So, here I am sitting in a diner on Sherbrook Street in The 'Peg and I just had to try a post on the new Blackberry.  It wasn't easy getting here and if I didn't have Plus 2s there's no way I'd be able to see the screen.

Just read in the Globe & Mail that the Canadian dollar is up 27% in the past twenty-four months.  Shoot, I shoulda bought the Canadian dollar.  Wait a minute, I did.  All my stuff is in Canadian dollars.  Where's my 27% ??

Bloggin' By The Boyne

We've been passing through Carman, Manitoba, each summer weekend for the past seven years, on the way to our weekend place at the lake.  "The Lake", that's what Manitobans call any weekend get-away spot.  It can be a cottage, an RV or campground and it's always called the lake...whether or not there's actually a lake or any other body of water.

It was last August when we made the decision that the time had come get out of The 'Peg and make the move to small town Manitoba.  Over the winter our new bungalow in Carman was built and now, after moving on April 4, I'm sitting in the new den looking out at the Boyne River rushing by.  Even with the water's edge a mere fifty feet from our back door, we're assured that we won't be flooded out as the town is protected by a dike and diversion which were built after three floods in the '70s.  Many others in Southern Manitoba won't be so lucky in the next few weeks as flood forecasters are predicting near record water levels for the Red and Assiniboine rivers and their many tributaries.

With the move, I haven't been paying much attention to the markets.  Many days I had no idea what happened until I settled down to watch the evening news.  Just looking at a chart of the TSX and see that it reached 14,252 on March 4 only to sag to 13,524 on March 16.  After that, it was a fairly steady climb back to the 14,000 level by month end.  On April 5 the TSX reached a multi year high of 14,270 after which it sagged a tad but Friday's close of 14,208 was pretty nice.

My stuff actually peaked the day before the TSX and reached a new high on April 4.  The CHARTS are looking sweet.  Hopefully I'm going to be able to pay a bit more attention to the markets, analyze things and make a few changes.  Right now I'm loving my banks.  What's not to love?  I'm really loving Suncor (SU) which is up over 19% since my January 20 purchase.  I'm thinking it's time to say goodbye to COW, the agricultural ETF, which I've been holding for well over two years.  We'll see what happens in the next while.

As always, Good Luck and Happy Investing!