AFTER PARKING MOST OF MY NEST EGG IN VERY CONSERVATIVE INVESTMENT ACCOUNTS THERE WASN'T MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT. TPCI IS BACK WITH SOME THOUGHTS AND IDEAS, OTHER THAN INVESTMENT IDEAS, TO SHARE WITH CANADIAN BOOMERS, RETIREES AND SNOWBIRDS.


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Monday, March 25, 2013

Two Of The Best Stocks I Didn't Buy

I've done my share of bragging on these pages. Why not? It's my blog and if I want to share a success story so be it. To keep things in balance I've also shared stories of several mistakes. This is another one of those. Happily, it's not about losing a pile of money, rather, it's the story of two missed opportunities.

Back in March of 2006 Canada's iconic coffee giant Tim Hortons (THI) announced an IPO. The shares, priced at $27.00, went on sale Friday, March 24, 2006. Me, I figured I'd wait and see. I actually thought Tim's had reached a saturation point. It seemed they were running their own competition on many streets in 'Peg City. It was a while later that I visited Vancouver and saw Starbucks operating as many as three stores at an intersection. Over the next few years Tim's shares went up and down but mostly up. They reached the double, double in March of 2012, six years after the IPO. Today they're at $52.65, and no, I never did buy any!

The second missed opportunity was Dollarama (DOL). Many believe that the dollar store sector offers one of the best investment opportunities in the retail sector. While The GAP and Canadian Tire eke out a 2-3% increase in year-to-year same store sales all a dollar store has to do is raise their price to $1.25 and bingo, a 25% increase!

My Dollarama story begins the day I left the house heading for Canadian Tire in search of some connectors and splitters for the entertainment center. You know, the whole deal with the cable box, TV, VCR, DVD, sound system and enough cable and wire to go once around the earth. As I sat at a traffic light I spotted a Dollarama store just past the intersection. I figured I'd check it out. Well, I found most of what I was looking for all priced at a buck or less as a couple of items were packaged in twos. Yup, two for a buck! After spending $4.00 I continued on to Canadian Tire to finish off my shopping list. You gotta know, I did some price checking. One of the items I'd purchased at Dollarama two for a buck was priced at $4.95 for one. From that day on whenever I needed a small hardware bit or household gadget my first stop was Dollarama.

I know, I know, you get what you pay for. One rule of thumb for dollar store shopping is to avoid things with moving parts. A screwdriver, great! A crescent wrench, not so much.

The Dollarama IPO was in October, 2009. The initial share price was $17.50. Why, if I loved Dollarama so much didn't I jump in? I learned that the Quebec dude who invented Dollarama had sold the company some time ago to Bain Capital of Boston. It was Bain who were offering the shares simply to get their money back, not to expand the company. Once again, I figured I'd watch for a bit before making an investment. Dollarama hit the double in less than two years. Today it's at $61.39.

Lesson learned, the next time a Canadian consumer success story goes public jump on for the ride! Canadians love their home grown companies.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Trash Talkin' At Blackberry??

Blackberry (BB) CEO, Thorsten Heins,says Apple stood still and now the iPhone has fallen behind.  Unbelievable! This coming from a guy who heads a company that didn't manage to produce a touch screen smart phone until sixteen months after Apple (AAPL) introduced the iPhone. By then iPhone 2 was already out. As if to lay permanent claim to being sixteen months behind they managed to crank out the half baked PlayBook, without email or calendar, sixteen months after the first iPad. A month later Apple rolled out iPad 2 and crushed Blackberry once again.

Now, with the long delayed Blackberry 10 operating system he thinks he may be a hair ahead and instead of quietly taking care of buisness, he's out there trashing Apple.  It doesn't take a crystal ball to predict that he'll be eating those words in short order.  Let's see, Blackberry 10, January, 2013, just four months after iPhone 5.  My guess, we'll iPhone 6, 7, & 8 before we see Blackberry 11, if Blackberry lasts that long...more to the point, if Thorsten lasts that long.

As an investor I did real well buying and selling Blackberry shares, when it was called RIM, in the $40.00-$50.00 range. Since I bailed the shares have been as low as $6.10. They're $15.43 today. Hey, I'm Canadian and would love to see Blackberry succeed, but trash talking Apple accomplishes nothing!

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

16% Annual Return!!!

That got your attention.

That's the track I'm on for 2013. As at February 28 my stuff is up 2.74% YTD. This annualizes to 16.44%. Those of you still in the market in a big way, especially if you're in US equities, will be chuckling at this as you might be trending toward something like a 40% gain. The DOW is up 7.35% at the end of February. 

Here we go again, the perennial struggle between fear and greed. Question. Do I jump into US equities at an all time high? This is the Canadian way. We have a terrible history of buying high when motivated by greed selling low when fear sets in with a market correction or outright collapse. I'm thinking I'll stick to my guns and stay with my Canadian Bond Fund and the basket of Canadian bank stocks in my trading account. After all, I'd be real happy at year end, if I'm up 16.44%.

As always, Good Luck & Happy Investing!