Stuff I'm Reading This Morning

TSX may open higher on rising commodities Reuters.  Will we have one more Happy Monday?

BMO may have last laugh (after getting beaten up on Friday) Globe Investor.

Twenty minutes into the new trading week.  TSX and US markets all up...for the moment at least.

Happy Monday and have a great week!

Will Santa Sizzle or Fizzle?

At the beginning of December it looked like the TSX was going to add a fourth month to the year end rally.  Now we've had three days of slippage and dropped 114 points from Monday's high of 13,295.  We're still up for the month but both gold and oil have backed off their earlier highs so it's not looking great for today.

On a positive note, RIM blew the doors off with their Q2 earnings report after the market closed yesterday.  Other news, just out this morning, is BMO's acquisition of Marshall & Ilsley, a US regional bank, for $4.1 Billion.  

I started this half an hour ago but decided to hold off posting to watch the opening.  TSX has been both up and down a tick.  RIM up 4.24%, BMO down 6.48%.  Guess the market doesn't like BMO's all stock purchase which will water down the shares although, this may change as the day goes on and the numbers are further digested.  Happy Friday!

Research

A reader, Chad, posted a comment to Monday's post and asked a number of questions. Welcome Chad.

Regular readers of TPCI will be aware that my investing style is anything but well organized or scientific.  I expect that most finance guys would scoff at my asset mix and methodology.  In my defense I point out that I have recovered from the abyss of 2008 after watching the value of my life savings fall off the cliff while invested in finance guy's picks.

In my May 5 post, Who Should(n't) Be In Funds? I mentioned that I've only read one book on investing.  The overall message of The Wealthy Barber by Michale Chilton is covered in the May post, including, most importantly, the answer to the question asked by the post's title.

I've mentioned that I use both Globe Investor and Morningstar for fund research.  Recently, my preference leans toward Morningstar as Globe Investor made changes to their site and blew away my saved portfolios.  Prior to the change I had a pretend portfolio on Globe Investor wherein I was tracking all of the seg funds, about sixty, offered by one of those goofy guaranteed income plus programs.  The process of adding numerous funds to a portfolio, so they can be quickly compared, is fairly painful so I was disappointed with the change.

In my post of June 1, 2009, My Home Run! (Part 2 of 2), I told of my early success with ETFs. ETFs are all about a sector so you have to listen and learn as much about the sector of interest to understand where the sector is at any given time, and maybe, just maybe be able to predict which direction it may head.  My investments in the energy ETF (XEG) and gold ETF (XGD) involved fairly basic research as these ETFs track pretty closely to the commodities.  Still, at the end of the day it's about gut instinct.  With oil presently near $90 and gold near $1,400 would I be a buyer or seller?

Individual stocks are another kettle of fish.  It begins with a name.  The name of a stock that is.  Sometimes a friend or family member comes up with an idea.  Other times a story in a newspaper or blog creates interest in a certain company.  Except for my HudBay Minerals story, I've done fairly well with top picks of BNN guest analysts.  No matter how you come up with the name you've got to do your research before placing that buy order.

I know I've mentioned using Stock Chase and Stock House as research tools. Stock Chase summarizes all the comments about each company made by BNN guest analysts.  Additionally, the date and price of the stock on that date are recorded.  This can sure reduce the endless hours watching the tube.  The Bullboards on Stock House are always an interesting read as these are the views of other retail investors.  For historical charting I love the interactive charts of Yahoo! Finance.  You can add Technical Indicators such as moving averages and see the dates of events such as stock splits and dividend payments.

For a nice easy, entertaining read, I enjoy Josh Brown's The Reformed Broker.  Josh's blog roll includes links to a multitude of other financial blogs.  

To be fair, I should add that we can always discuss fund choices with finance guy.  After all, he's the one who receives commission when we buy a fund.  Those dealing with full service brokers also have access to their research and recommendations for stock research.  Online discount brokers don't provide these services.

At the end of the day, there are thousands of investment opportunities out there.  The first thing to decide is your tolerance for risk.  In my opinion, exposure to risk should decrease with age.  A market meltdown late on the game could have you looking for work in an unfamiliar environment.  Case in point....me.

Mondays Are Happy Days!

This December at least.  Last Monday the TSX reached a new high for the year...in fact, it was a new high for well over two years.  Until December 6, we hadn't seen the TSX over 13,200 since September 2, 2008.

Well, here we are.  Another Monday rolls around and another record close for the TSX.  Today's close, 13,295.

BNN analysts and various bloggers are now talking Santa Claus rally.  If the optimists are correct, it looks like we may enjoy this run up 'til year end.

Defying Gravity

I'm happy to say that I've got enough going on in my life that I don't watch BNN 24/7. Yesterday I came in on the right side of a curling match and  was away from the house and BNN so I don't know exactly what happened.  I was surprised to see that the TSX gained ground throughout the day while the big Canadian commodities, gold and oil, were losing ground.  Usually the TSX tracks pretty close to these two.  At the end of the day the TSX carved out a 72 point gain and my stuff advanced for the ninth consecutive day.

Right now I'm holding eight stocks and watching twenty-two others.  Yesterday only two of the thirty went down.

I took a small plunge into US waters this week and made my first purchase on the Nasdaq Exchange.  Bought Cisco Systems as the outlook for them is very good for the coming year.  An anticipated explosion in the smart phone and tablet market will flow through to Cisco as the massive amounts of data which these items utilize is processed by Cisco equipment.

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Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or a suggestion or invitation to buy or sell any securities. Every investor should do their own research and consult their own finance guy. See full DISCLAIMER.

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...

Here in the 'Peg at least.  The late November snow is piled up everywhere and we're looking at a deep freeze this weekend with January type lows in the -20 range.

The markets have been flat but still slowly trending upward.  The TSX hit a new high for the year on Monday.  Despite a couple of downward ticks in the TSX, down 25 points on Tuesday and another 98 on Wednesday, my stuff has gone up every trading day this month.  That's pretty surprising given that my portfolio is almost all Canadian.  So far at least, it looks like the rally which started at the beginning of September continues.  Maybe there really is a Santa.

With a couple of hours to North America market opening, it's anybody's guess today.  No real definitive overnight news, but US futures are up a tick.

Happy Friday and good luck to all!

Sometimes things just work out

I've been honest about fessing up when I make mistakes.

In my March post Canadian Banks - Buy 'em and Hold 'em I told about leaving a sell order on the table and leaving town for the day.  The result was that I was taken out of RBC (RY) on the way up at the very beginning of a rally for RBC shares.  Had I been paying attention I would have seen the share price approaching my sell order and either increased my ask or pulled the order allowing me to reassess the situation.  A month later, not having learned my lesson, I admitted that I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer... with my story about a sell order for Cenovus Energy (CVE).  In this case, I failed to pay attention to the fact that Cenovus shares bounced one day and oil spiked overnight.  I left a sell order in place and once again was taken out on the way up and missed a nice gain later that same day.

So, when I finally do something right I'm going to brag a bit.  As mentioned yesterday, I doubled my positions with both BMO and RBC on Monday.  Wham!  BMO reported real good Q4 numbers before the markets opened on Tuesday and the shares took off.  I would have been happy if BMO shares rose to my new lower average acquisition price but they hit that and kept going. In one day I went from being under water to a real nice gain.

Sometimes things just work out.

Big Beat By BMO

Happy Tuesday!

Yesterday, I put Friday's money back to work by doubling my October positions in both BMO and RBC. Ironically, I was able to buy shares for less than I had offered on Friday on yet another dip. Afterward, both went up throughout the day so it felt like a win, win. Averaged down on my October purchases and actually made money on my Monday morning buys.

BMO just out with Q4 numbers and it's a big beat of expectations. The banks, BMO for sure, should get back on track today.

Asia, Europe and US futures all up overnight. DOW futures way up! Oil over $90. TSX should keep on rockin' today.

I'm glad to see a couple of readers weighing in with comments. Welcome! Bloggers do wonder if anyone is reading.

TSX On A Roll!

Despite Friday's sell off of the banks the TSX carved out a new two year high,  The run that began on September 1 has been quite spectacular.  With gold at $1,415 and oil over $89 we may keep 'er going today.

One last chance to put some legs under the banks with BMO closing out the reporting period tomorrow.

Markets just opened.  First tick for TSX to the upside.

BNN live from new studio in Toronto.  Freshened up their look.  Lookin' a lot like CNBC.  Too bad they told Michael Kane where to find the new digs.

Coal Miners, Love 'em and Leave 'em

Usually when I sell something it's because the markets are strong and the stock I want to sell is along for the ride.  Today is different.  It's been a flat day but Western Coal (WTN) has been up all day.  Not to the level that I suggested earlier today.  Rather, the market still wants to stay within the range of the cash offer which is $11.50.  After watching it all morning I finally placed a sell order and let them go at $11.48.  A nice 42.6% gain since my purchase on November 9 at $8.05.

My other coal miner, Grande Cache (GCE), also purchased on November 9 got caught in the updraft and it too was on a roll today.  Figuring I might cash in on this I placed a sell order at $10.15 when is was trading around $10.00.  It took about an hour but the buy orders finally reached up to my price and took out my shares at $10.15, a 20.8% gain over my $8.40 purchase price.

When I bought the coal miners last month I was thinking about a twelve to eighteen month hold.  Little did I know that a takeover offer would fire up the whole sector in a few days. Sometimes things just work out.

Now here's what is so different today.  Since RBC's big earnings miss, reported before the markets opened this morning, the banks have tanked.  As a holder of bank shares, BMO, Royal and TD, I'm disappointed.  On the other hand, I see this as a buying opportunity.  I've taken my new found wealth, from today's selling activity and placed buy orders for additional shares of both RBC and BMO figuring it's a chance to average down on my October purchase prices. I'm well under the market on both offers so I may or may not get them but it's worth a try.

Have a great weekend, and as always, Happy Investing!