Santa Came Early

As mentioned in my most recent post I was looking forward to the year end dividend for my Canadian Bond Fund. Given that the earlier dividends arrived on the final days of June and September I naturally expected the year end distribution to arrive tomorrow, on December 30.

I was checking my account today and surprise, surprise, the year end distribution was paid on December 23. The value of my Canadian Bond Fund units is now up 6.02% since making the switch on June 22. The actual unit value is up 4.23%...the rest is the result of the quarterly dividends. Sweet! In the mean time, the TSX has dropped from 13,060 to today's 11,841...of 9.33%. What a difference!

Yes, The Day That Fear Trumped Greed was an excellent day for TPCI. In the new year I'll be looking back at 2011 and providing some stats about finance guy's continual advice about the ever increasing value of the long term markets.

Until then, happy investing and Happy New Year to all!   

The Day That Fear Trumped Greed

I've documented in fair detail my decision to take the majority of my money off the table in the past year or so.  It began last fall with my move out of the Canadian Resource Fund to a Canadian Bond Fund.  This year I bailed on my long held Canadian Endeavor Fund and that money also went to the bond fund.

After the move to Carman we decided we'd like to have some of our stuff with a local finance guy so we approached a good friend who works with one of the big five and she put us in touch with the branch finance guy.  We sat down with finance guy and to discuss the transfer.  Sure they have a Canadian Bond Fund just like the one we were in with the competitor.

Pending the arrival of our money from the former fund company finance guy offered some reading material and suggested that we have a look at it and make a final decision when the funds arrive in a week or two.  He gave us info on their Bond Fund, as well as their Conservative Fund and their Very Conservative fund.  In addition he gave us a well written article out of his head office entitled "It's only a flesh wound".  I commented on this article in my post of August 9.

A week or so later our money arrived and it was time to sit down and decide if we wanted to stay with bonds or get back into the markets, just a wee bit, with either the Conservative fund or the Very conservative fund.   Finance guy had made a pretty good case for going along with one of these funds in favor of the Bond fund but I was not to be swayed.  I sat across from finance guy, looked him in the eye and said "no, we're going to stick with the bond fund for now".  I went on to explain that the new job coupled with our desire to spend as much time as possible at the lake limited the amount of time I would have over the summer to watch the markets and make changes as required.  I said that we'd revisit this decision later in the year if there was any sign of stability in the markets.

That day the TSX was 13,060.  Three days ago, 11,171...a decline of nearly 15%  Now, the TSX bounced 609 points in the past couple of days but it's done that, or close to that, several times since that day in June.

Oh, by the way, the YTD return on the Bond fund is 5.52%.  On the Very Conservative fund it's .81% and the Conservative fund is -1.37%.  Yup, down 1.37%.

Unlike the title of this post, I'd like to think that my decision that day had more to do with a reasonably intelligent take on current world and market conditions than fear.  Whatever.  It's been a great summer to be sitting on the sidelines!

Have a great weekend and as always, Happy Investing!     

The Lost Decade

Sounds kind of ominous.  I was watching the tube yesterday and the one of the hosts asked the guest analyst if we are heading into another "Lost Decade".  My ears perked up.  Lost decade???  He went on to refer to the first decade of the new millennium as The Lost  Decade when returns for the entire ten years were sub-par.

I wasn't calling it The Lost Decade a few months later when, on July 16, 2010 I wrote A Little More About The Last (Next) Ten Years.  In this one I included a chart showing the returns of the TSX for the 12 month period ending July 8 for each of the past ten years.  Up and down, to be sure.  Some good ones?  You bet!  Some ugly ones?  Yup!  Because none of us were smart enough to time the market, we hung in there for the whole ten years.  Final return?  10% for ten years and I'm not talking 10% annual, I'm talking 10% in total for ten years.  The Lost Decade!

Canada's Top Ten Companies

This from the Globe & Mail today.  Canada's Top Ten Companies In Pictures

I'm feeling pretty good about this list as I'm holding four of the ten in my trading account...BMO, RBC, TD & Suncor.  Now if their damn share prices would just get back to where they were just a couple of months ago all would be good!

20 Things I Don't Understand About Personal Finance

A friend sent me this article from today's Globe & Mail.  I think TPCI and Rob Carrick would hit it off real well!

Rob Carrick's Globe & Mail Article

I Don't Like To Gloat...but

Things are pretty sweet here on the sidelines. Since triggering the most recent portion of my exit strategy back in early May the TSX is off 10.17% and DOW is down a whopping 13.04%!  In the meantime, my Canadian Bond Fund units just keep on tickin' up.  Oh sure, they take a downward tick on a day when the markets rally a tad but overall, I'm up huge compared to where I'd be had I held my earlier positions in the Canadian Resource and Canadian Endeavor Funds.

I wish I'd implemented something similar with that crazy basket of seg funds I'm holding in another account. Needless to say they're as far down as the markets are now. The blessing is that they are a small portion of my total holdings...getting smaller every day!

Same goes for my trading account but I don't worry about it as my largest holdings in that account are the three Canadian Banks, BMO, RBC & TD. I expect them begin to rally in the next quarter or two. I think that my trading account will be at the very least all the way back by year end...maybe even up a few points.

A few friends have asked why TPCI has been so quiet.  Pretty sporadic posting through June and July.  No, I didn't go on a vacation.  The fact is, I accepted a job offer.  The great thing about Carman is that there's no Walmart or Tim's so I wasn't tempted to seek out the urban boomer's type of job.  I lucked out with a very nice position doing the accounting for one of the larger firms in town.  Working a great group and enjoying the new challenge after being unemployed for a few months after the move.  Must say, I'm much happier at work than at home watching the markets fall off day after day.

Had a couple of visitors yesterday.  They dropped in to have a look at the Carman condo as they're getting ready to make a large investment in a condo complex in a nearby town. Boomer's housing...one of the few growth industries in small town Manitoba.

As Always, Happy Investing!

Sometimes it's nice to be wrong...

Like last Wednesday when I suggested that the DOW may dip for the sixth consecutive day. I was wrong, it ticked up. More recently, on Tuesday, I suggested that the TSX would not follow the US markets up as the price of oil was in the tank. I missed that one by a mile! Sure, the DOW went up as the futures indicated in the early morn...but the TSX kicked butt and soared 458 points. WOW!

Yesterday, there was a complete disconnect between the US and Canadian markets. The DOW fell off the cliff for a dive of 519 points giving back all of Tuesday's gain, and then some, while here at home the TSX hung on and gained 89 points following a commodity bounce.

Even with my terrible track record at predictions, the one that I've been bang on with is that I've continually said that this year will see tremendous volatility. In fact, I predict volatility for the remainder of the decade. Those who hang in there will go from wrist slashing depression to times when they actually believe that they and finance guy are the brightest stars in the sky.

A bit over a year ago I wrote A Little More About The Last (Next) Ten Years. Me, I'm very much in the camp that believe that the next ten years will look a lot like the last ten. We may never return to the heady days of the eighties or nineties when we thought the sun shown out of finance guy's butt.

It's only a flesh wound...I Wish!!!

"It's Only A Flesh Wound". That was the title of an article that my new finance guy gave me back in June. The writer made a fairly decent case for likening the market decline to a light flesh wound...in the big scheme of things that is. I wonder what that analyst is thinking today. If he compared the markets in mid June to a flesh wound, I expect that he'd now agree it's akin to a full blown gun shot wound to the head.

The TSX fell 6.15% last week followed with another 4.04% decline yesterday. Yup, a 10.19% haircut in six trading days. Down south, the DOW followed last week's 6.57% plunge with a 5.55% drop yesterday, making Monday, August 8, 2011 the all time sixth worst day for the index. Will it be coined as the third Black Monday?

Overnight, Europe and Asia are down again.  US futures are holding steady and even showing a slight uptick at the moment.  Don't look for any gains here at home.  Last Monday's $98 oil is now down below $80.  So goes oil, so goes the TSX.  This undoubtedly has something to do with the drop of the Canadian dollar from $1.05 US a week ago to pretty much par this morning.

I Was Wrong But It Seemed More Like Right

On Wednesday morning I suggested that the DOW may drop for the ninth consecutive day. At the end of the day, I was wrong as it ticked up 30 points. When looking at the one day chart for Wednesday I see that that the DOW was under water for most of day...about 5 hours by my take.

Well, if I missed with Wednesday's prediction, Thursday made up for it, in spades! A 500+ point drop in one day! Yikes! Naturally, the TSX joined in on the sell off and tanked about the same. The difference came on Friday when the US markets gained a tad when it was recognized that it had over sold, while the TSX dove another 217...mainly I suppose in reaction to the continued sell off of oil. Oil $98 on Monday, $87 on Friday.

Now, despite all attempts to salvage the US credit rating, Standard  & Poors downgraded it anyway. Doesn't look good for the week ahead.

Me, I stayed home last evening to watch the Bombers kick Edmonton, now I'm headin' to the lake to drown my sorrows.

Deal Or No Deal

It doesn't seem to matter.  The lack of a deal on the US government debt limit sent the markets down over the past week or so.  Yesterday, on the last possible day, a deal was struck, bills were passed and signed into law and the markets took a nosedive.  Worldwide the markets are down overnight and things aren't looking great.  At the moment, US futures are up a tick but down from a couple of hours ago.  My guess is that this could be the ninth consecutive down day for the DOW.

Those who hung in there and were enjoying the ride up earlier in the year are once again asking what the heck is going on.  Once again finance guy has stopped returning calls...after all, it is time for summer vacation.  Isn't it?

When I made my recent switch from bond fund to bond fund it was suggested that I keep a bit in play with a conservative balanced fund or even an ultra-conservative balanced fund.  "Mostly bonds but with some blue chip market exposure", I was told.  I stood my ground and said that no, I'd prefer to leave it all in a bond fund until I see some stability in the market and far less worldwide doom and gloom.  As regular readers know, I'm not the sharpest knife in any drawer, but on occasion I do make the right call.  More gut instinct than brains, but hey, whatever works.

Question, is anyone else watching CNBC's early morning show Squawk Box?  When did it change from a business news reporting show to a daily $#!^ fight with two scary righties beating on the lone lefty.

As always, good luck and happy investing!