October, a pretty boring month

Not much happened in October. The Dow was flatter than the proverbial pancake. It ended the month at 9,712.73 compared to 9,712.28 at the end of September. On the down side, the TSX had its first down month since the small drop in June. This time it was significant, from 11,394 to 10,910. A full 4%.

When I last posted on October 2, we had had a down day on the 1st and the 2nd wasn’t looking any better. By market close on the 2nd, indeed we were seeing a very poor start for the month. As the month progressed, we enjoyed a bit of a rally. My portfolio value reached a new high for year on October 20. Wow! Alas, the gains were totally erased by month end as six of the remaining eight trading days were downers…and big downers at that!

With a month like this I tend to sit tight. In fact, the only change in my portfolio was the transfer of a small position in a Canadian Equity Fund to the Canadian Endeavor Fund which I mentioned in my last post. This change was actually requested in September but wasn’t finalized until October 23. Fund companies don’t make things easy. A transfer from one fund to another within the same company can take place the day you request it, but to actually change from one company to another is something else.

I made no changes in my trading account in October. I still like all the good ones, six out of nine, and I’m so far under water with the losers, two out of nine, that there is no point is selling. The final stock is down a bit but I wouldn’t call it a loser. It’s just not performing right now. It’s the (Claymore) Canadian Agricultural ETF, that I’ve mentioned before. I still have hopes for (COW).

As of today, we are nearing the end of US earning’s season and getting into the thick of the Canadian earning’s season. US companies did very well with some 80% turning in better than expected numbers. Things aren’t quite as rosy North of the 49th, but still, better than half of the early numbers are matching or exceeding expectations. Our best hope for a nice bounce this month rests with our big banks which will begin reporting in the next couple of weeks. Of course, as always, we need the price of oil and gold to hold as well.

They, whoever they are, say that November and December are historically the best months of the year. We’ve all heard of the Santa Claus rally, right? Let’s hope they’re right and we end the year with a nice bounce. Maybe, just maybe we’ll get back to where we were on January 1, 2007 by year end. On one hand, it’s pretty sad when you think about it. Our most optimistic wish is to get back to where we were a FULL THREE FULL YEARS AGO. On the other hand, if we make it back, it’ll have been an amazing recovery, after what we’ve been through.